Fooled by Randomness: The Hidden Role of Chance in Life and in the Markets

Nassim Nicholas Taleb

"Fooled by Randomness" is a book written by Nassim Nicholas Taleb, a mathematician, statistician, and former options trader. The book explores the role of chance and randomness in our lives and the financial markets. Taleb argues that people often make the mistake of attributing success or failure to skill or personal characteristics, when in fact, chance plays a much larger role than most realize.

The book examines various phenomena related to randomness, including survivorship bias, which is the tendency to focus only on successful people or things and ignore the failures. Taleb argues that this bias can lead people to overestimate their own abilities or the abilities of others, and can be dangerous in the financial markets if one is not aware of the role of chance.

Taleb also discusses the concept of the "black swan," which is an unexpected or rare event that has a significant impact. He argues that such events are more common than we think and can have a profound effect on our lives and on the financial markets, despite their low probability of occurrence.

Overall, "Fooled by Randomness" provides important insights into the ways in which chance and randomness affect our lives and the financial world. It challenges conventional wisdom and encourages readers to be more aware of the role of chance in their decision making.

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