2024 Republican primary poll from a reputable non-partisan pollster conducted November 16-17.

Again Trump is still the frontrunner. Though DeSantis has gained from the previous Harris poll conducted in October. Pence is holding his own surprisingly. I imagine he has a path to the Evangelical vote.

The crowded field is important here. GOP primary contests have a lot of winner take all formats instead of proportional allocation. So someone can get a lot of delegates just by winning a plurality. This was the kiss of death in 2016. The non-Trump voting bloc was split between Cruz, Rubio, and Kasich allowing for Trump to win many primaries with a plurality and thus win many of the delegates. Trump only got 45% of the 2016 primary popular vote, but nearly 60% of the delegates.

I remain skeptical of DeSantis' chances for now. I'll be curious how Trump's 2024 announcement and the Mar-a-Lago Special Prosecutor affect these polls.