EPL Week 21: The Final Festive Sprint! 🏃♂️ AI Predictions & €800 Longshot
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This is it—the final set of games in this crazy, congested festive period! After weeks of non-stop football, player fatigue (and maybe model fatigue?) is peaking. We have one last midweek round before a much-needed breather.
For Matchweek 21, the model has crunched the numbers for all 10 fixtures. It’s a tricky round with some massive clashes, including a heavy-weight battle between Arsenal (1st) and Liverpool (4th) to close out the week.
Here is the full prediction report and the recommended betting tickets.
📊 Database Performance (80 Matches): 1X2 Hitrate: 51.2% | O/U Hitrate: 52.5%
The numbers are holding steady just above 50%, but this upcoming break will be the perfect time to review the data and see where we can squeeze out more edge.
📈 All Predictions
| Match | xG | 1X2 | O/U | BTS | CS | Odds (H/D/A) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Ham (18) vs Nott'm Forest (17) | 1.46-1.44 | Away (35%) | Over (55%) | Yes (60%) | 1-2 | 2.88/3.25/2.2 |
| Bournemouth (15) vs Tottenham (13) | 1.84-1.19 | Home (43%) | Over (58%) | Yes (60%) | 2-1 | 2.1/3.6/3.3 |
| Brentford (7) vs Sunderland (8) | 1.87-0.72 | Home (55%) | Under (52%) | No (45%) | 2-0 | 1.85/3.5/4.33 |
| Crystal Palace (14) vs Aston Villa (3) | 1.39-1.37 | Away (41%) | Over (52%) | Yes (58%) | 1-2 | 3.1/3.3/2.3 |
| Everton (12) vs Wolves (20) | 1.79-0.87 | Home (57%) | Under (50%) | No (50%) | 2-0 | 1.75/3.5/5.0 |
| Fulham (11) vs Chelsea (5) | 1.30-1.66 | Away (46%) | Over (57%) | Yes (60%) | 1-2 | 3.4/3.6/2.05 |
| Man City (2) vs Brighton (10) | 3.03-0.67 | Home (72%) | Over (71%) | No (47%) | 3-0 | 1.4/5.25/6.5 |
| Burnley (19) vs Man United (6) | 0.96-1.94 | Away (58%) | Over (55%) | Yes (54%) | 1-2 | 4.75/4.0/1.7 |
| Newcastle (9) vs Leeds (16) | 2.53-0.79 | Home (63%) | Over (64%) | Yes (51%) | 2-1 | 1.67/3.8/5.0 |
| Arsenal (1) vs Liverpool (4) | 2.39-0.84 | Home (59%) | Over (62%) | Yes (53%) | 2-1 | 1.6/4.1/5.0 |
🎟️ Recommended Tickets
1X2 | Stake: €2.20 | Max Pot: €23.68
| Match | Pick | Prob | Odd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City (2) vs Brighton (10) | Home | 72% | 1.42 |
| Newcastle (9) vs Leeds (16) | Home | 63% | 1.70 |
| Arsenal (1) vs Liverpool (4) | Home | 59% | 1.59 |
| Burnley (19) vs Man United (6) | Away | 58% | 1.66 |
| Everton (12) vs Wolves (20) | Home | 57% | 1.77 |
| Bournemouth (15) vs Tottenham (13) | Home | 43% | 2.14 |
O/U | Stake: €2.20 | Max Pot: €23.22
| Match | Pick | Prob | Odd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Man City (2) vs Brighton (10) | Over | 71% | 1.42 |
| Newcastle (9) vs Leeds (16) | Over | 64% | 1.81 |
| Arsenal (1) vs Liverpool (4) | Over | 62% | 1.72 |
| Bournemouth (15) vs Tottenham (13) | Over | 58% | 1.73 |
| Fulham (11) vs Chelsea (5) | Over | 57% | 1.78 |
| Burnley (19) vs Man United (6) | Over | 55% | 1.74 |
Correct Score | Stake: €1.10 | Max Pot: €797.78
| Match | Pick | Prob | Odd |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brentford (7) vs Sunderland (8) | 2-0 | 13% | 8.25 |
| Man City (2) vs Brighton (10) | 3-0 | 12% | 10.00 |
| Everton (12) vs Wolves (20) | 2-0 | 11% | 8.00 |
| Burnley (19) vs Man United (6) | 1-2 | 10% | 7.75 |
This round marks the end of a grueling schedule, and frankly, I will be glad to have some time off afterward to analyze the model's performance in depth.
Human vs. Machine: The Aston Villa Case One thing I noticed immediately is the Crystal Palace vs Aston Villa game. Personally, I would have locked in an Aston Villa win (3rd in the league) against a struggling Palace side. However, the model calculated the Away win probability at only 41%, which wasn't high enough to make the "Safe Ticket."
This is where the automation needs a review. The model might be over-weighing historical home advantage or Palace's defensive xG data, but "football intuition" suggests Villa should be a stronger favorite here. During the break, I plan to tweak the ticket generation logic to perhaps allow for value bets like this that the strict probability threshold might miss.
Next Steps The goal for the break is simple: improve the bet creation algorithm. The raw predictions are decent (51%+ hitrate), but how we combine them into tickets can be optimized to capture better value.
Good luck if you are following these picks, and enjoy the football!
Cheers,
Peter
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