Private Sector Employment Looks Bleak

According to the latest weekly estimate from ADP Research (in collaboration with Stanford Digital Economy Lab), U.S. private sector employment fell by an average of 11,250 jobs per week over the four-week period ending October 25, 2025. This is a sharp contrast to the situation earlier in October, when ADP’s weekly estimate for the four weeks ending October 11 showed a gain of about 14,250 jobs. No to mention, for September, the private sector lost about 32,000 jobs which is the largest drop since March 2023.

A sustained weekly loss of jobs points to a slowing labour market. While losses of this magnitude are not necessarily a crisis in themselves, the shift from positive job gains to consistent job reductions is significant and concerning. With the labour market showing signs of weakening, the Federal Reserve may be more inclined to consider further interest rate cuts (or at least be cautious about tightening) to bolster employment and growth. It will feed into weaker consumer spending, more caution among businesses, and potentially slower wage growth.

As an investor the story is a little bit the opposite which is counterintuitive. The weakening economy lay the grown works for an easier path for Fed rate cuts. If inflation pressures ease, the Federal Reserve has more room to cut interest rates or at least pause future hikes.Lower rates means:

• Cheaper borrowing costs for businesses and consumers

• Higher valuations for equities (since future cash flows are discounted at lower rates)

• Improved liquidity across markets

It's a tail as old as time the real economy and works will bear the hardship while investor continue to get all the benefit. A cooling labor market eases inflation pressure, increases the odds of Fed rate cuts, and can boost valuations for stocks, crypto, and other risk assets. If job losses remain moderate not recessionary this slowdown may pave the way for stronger markets in 2026 rather than a collapse... All I know is the world of finance is a cruel relm that makes me sad I have to play the game to try to get ahead.